Barring a last minute Devine intervention, it is almost certain now that the dreaded and cruel Ethiopian Woyanne invasion in Somalia that lasted for almost two agonizing years is about to come to and end. The fact that they did not fire a shot in anger in the face of Al Shabaab (Islamic insurgents) advancement to lower Shabelle region and other parts of the country is an indication of their imminent departure. Lower Shabelle is now under the full control of Al Shabaab. During the occupation, thousands of innocent Somalis have been cut down by Zenawi’s military machine in the cruelest way imaginable in the gaze of the so called international community. Thousands more have been wounded and left to die in the streets and alleyways of the capital and elsewhere, while hundreds of thousands more of Mogadishu residents and its immediate environs have been internally displaced in the cold and the wilderness of Banadir countryside with little or no support from the Aid agencies. Even those few agencies willing to help the displaced and the needy were denied to enter the refugee camps scattered in and around Banadir by Zenawi’s brutish forces and their TFG collaborators. Mogadishu, already scarred by a long and protracted civil war since the ouster of late Siyad Barre in 1991, lies in ruins. The only cosmopolitan city Somalis have ever known – the pride of the nation – is no more than a ghost town today, and it will take years and a massive rebuilding to bring it back to its old self – a huge burden for future generations. Physical scars may be removed, but the mental scars left behind by the Tigre’s barbaric invasion will remain for generations to come, if not forever.

As many predicted before the invasion, Somalia was never going to be a rich picking for Zenawi and his cohorts. Many others before him have tried to subdue the unconquerable Somalis and failed. The butcher from Tigre has miscalculated the resolve of Somali people, probably deceived by his long time stay in the country during the seventies, when he and his best friend then (now his biggest nemesis), Afreweki of Eritrea, were residing in Mogadishu at the expense of Somali taxpayers. Among Zenawi’s main objectives to invade Somalia was to install a puppet regime similar in nature and brutality to the one that he already set up previously in the Somali-inhabited region of Ethiopia. It was never his intention to restore law and order in this anarchic country as he was the main architect of the Somali crisis in the first place. From the word go and as soon as he wrested power from the vanquished Dergue regime of Mingistu Haille Mariam, his principal aim was to keep Somalia divided along tribal and regional lines as long as it lasts by arming one group against the other to ensure that no strong central Somali government – which may revive the Somali nationalism in what is now called Zone Five – ever emerges. When this failed after the loosely-allied Islamic Courts Union had chased away the Ethio-American-backed warlords from the country, Mogadishu in particular, Zenawi – the former Marxist-turned democrat – has embarked on a violent invasion in Somalia with financial and intelligence backing from Uncle Sam. The resultant war was to become catastrophic for the Somali populace in southern Somalia.

The other sinister objective behind his invasion was to hoodwink the international community from witnessing of what his ruthless army was up to in Ogaden, the Somali-populated region of Ethiopia. This region has suffered immensely in the hands of the successive Ethiopian regimes for generations.

No sooner than Ethiopia’s tanks started rolling in Beletweyn and Baidoa deep towards Mogadishu, Zenawi has unleashed his terror machine to commit the most heinous crimes against the Somalis in eastern Ethiopia, better known internationally as Ogaden. Raping women some as young as 13 years olds; rounding up young boys for collective punishment; razing houses to the ground; burning livestock and other valuable possessions; hanging old men in public; and scorching earth and blocking roads between villages and towns in the region to deny relief operations reaching their destinations are the tip of an iceberg of the horrific atrocities committed by Zenawi’s army and documented by the only Aid agencies allowed to operate in the region. No town or village was spared from this barbaric and collective punishment. What happened in this region as well as in Somalia proper was a complete genocide, an attempt to wipe out an entire nation from the face of the earth. No any other description fits this. The so called international community led by the West has simply chosen no-see, no-hear policy in this slaughter.

Despite all the odds stacked against them, not to mention the US air surveillance over Mogadishu blue skies in support of Ethiopia’s army on the ground, the gallant Somalis have managed to find their resolve and waged a vicious guerilla war against the invading army and their local collaborators. All sorts of opposition groups, including remnants of defeated Islamic Courts, have emerged from the ruins of Mogadishu to put up a fierce resistance. All of sudden, the mighty Ethiopian war machine that captured Mogadishu so easily and so effortlessly has bogged down in a quagmire and hopeless situation against an elusive enemy in an alien land. To vanquish a defenseless country and its people is one thing. To hold on to it is entirely another thing.

In the early euphoria immediately after the invasion, Zenawi was bragging before the international media rather cynically that he soundly defeated the Al Qaeda affiliated jihadists in Somalia and that a secular government friendly to his country will be established. An overnight, a former Marxist rebel had become the darling of the West. He was shaking hands with the most powerful leaders in the West. His earlier violent putdown of the supporters of the opposition parties in the streets of Addis Ababa, which drew worldwide condemnation for his regime, was forgotten all of a sudden. He was even welcomed to the White House lawn by non other than the architect of the so called “war on terror” which culminated the invasion of Somalia – George. W. Bush. Everything seemed plain sailing for Zenawi. What Meles forgot to realize, however, was the fact that the battle-hardened Somalis are very dangerous when they are pushed to edge.

Militarily Ethiopian invaders are staring defeat in the face today, although their leaders want the world to believe otherwise. Seyoum Mesfin, the foreign minister, said the other day that the Ethiopian army will not stay in Somalia indefinitely to prop up the ailing TFG government, indicating the imminent departure of his troops. The strong man himself, Mr. Zenawi, said a few weeks back that a decision on whether to leave Somalia will be made soon emphasizing that there will be no open end support for the ever weakening TFG regime of Abdullahi Yusuf. Other high ranking officials reiterated that they will be honouring the recent UN sponsored peace accord singed in Djibouti which called for the departure of Ethiopian forces from Somalia. All these statements indicate one thing: the end of an evil and cruel invasion. The rumour mill is that a large contingent of Ethiopia’s invading army has already left the country and it is just a matter of time before the rest will follow suit.

Now the question begs: are Ethiopians leaving on their own terms? Are they honouring the UN sponsored accord singed in Djibouti by the ailing TFG and Sheikh Sharif Ahmed and his coalition? Is it a humiliating defeat, and hence a face saving withdrawal? The most probable reason for Ethiopia’s imminent withdrawal is the last one. Zenawi knows that he cannot keep his army in Somalia for two simple reasons. The first one is obvious. His army is facing a humiliating defeat in the face of strong resistance from Al Shabaab and other resistances who have already captured large swathes in southern Somalia, including parts of Mogadishu.

Secondly, the made-in-Kenya surrogate government (TFG) that facilitated and led the Ethiopian invasion into Somalia has officially collapsed as per recent statements quoted from its president, or at least on the verge of imminent collapse if you listen to Nuur Adeh, the prime minister, or even see the reality on the ground. The demise of TFG will make Ethiopia’s illegal invasion more problematic in IGAD (the regional organization), and even more so in the eyes of its ardent supporters led by the US. Worse of all, Ethiopians cannot count on the support of the incoming administration in the White House under Obama. The president-elect has indicated in his website that he will seek an alternative solution to the Somali problem than the failed one his predecessor was pursuing. This could mean a departure from the gun-ho policies pursued by the former administration in the US towards Somalia. Hence no more proxy war and no more open checks for manipulator Zenawi to continue his murderous war in Somalia.

In conclusion, whichever way Zenawi wants to present his troop’s imminent departure from Somalia, the undeniable fact is that his demoralized and defeated army is going home with their tails tucked in their legs. Their upcoming withdrawal is nothing to do with the UN-sponsored accord signed in Djibouti. Nor are they leaving on their own terms. It is a face saving exercise to avoid a certain humiliating defeat. However, for the victims of their terror invasion in the past two years, it is a sigh of relief to see the back of their torturers. For Abdullahi Yusuf and his TFG, the departure of his long time ally will be a certain death knell. For the rest of Somalis, it is a timely reminder and painful experience of what could happen to a divided people and nation. Nevertheless, with another extremist and dangerous group likely to takeover from the Ethiopians and its collaborators and the lack of sympathetic response towards Somalis from the international community, the future remains grim.

By Mohamed F Yabarag
Email: myabarag@yahoo.co.uk